Jason Blue v Malcolm Levy (Mon 14 Jan 2019)
Match won by Malcolm Levy. Result: 11-8,10-11,9-11,11-5,7-11.
Starting level for
Jason Blue:
4,682, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Malcolm Levy:
3,867, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Jason Blue to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Malcolm Levy.
Malcolm Levy won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Malcolm Levy played
6% better than Jason Blue in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Malcolm Levy actually played at a level of
4,390 and Jason Blue at a level of
4,124. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Malcolm Levy changes to +12% and Jason Blue changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Malcolm Levy becomes +4.6% and for Jason Blue becomes -4.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Malcolm Levy is +3.5% and for Jason Blue is -3.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Malcolm Levy: 84%, Jason Blue: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Malcolm Levy: 74%, Jason Blue: 74%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Jason Blue:
4,525, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Malcolm Levy:
3,995, level confidence: 74%.