Matthew Marshall v Omar Samad (Mon 14 Jan 2019)
Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 11-1,11-3,11-5.
Starting level for
Matthew Marshall:
9,390, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Omar Samad:
3,504, level confidence: 47%.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing
168% better than Omar Samad.
Matthew Marshall won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played
267% better than Omar Samad in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Marshall actually played at a level of
10,984 and Omar Samad at a level of
2,996. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.1% and 10.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to +6.8% and Omar Samad changes to -10.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes +2.4% and for Omar Samad becomes -4.2%.
Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Matthew Marshall is +1.6% and for Omar Samad is -3.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 83%, Omar Samad: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 71%, Omar Samad: 58%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Matthew Marshall:
9,563, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Omar Samad:
3,407, level confidence: 58%.