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Chris Cave v James Martin (Fri 11 Jan 2019)

Match won by James Martin. Result: 8-11,11-3,9-11,11-7,6-11.

Starting level for Chris Cave: 1,747, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Martin: 1,424, level confidence: 62%.
Chris Cave to win as he is currently playing 23% better than James Martin.

James Martin won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Martin played 6% better than Chris Cave in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Martin actually played at a level of 1,627 and Chris Cave at a level of 1,529. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Martin changes to +13% and Chris Cave changes to -10%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Martin becomes +6.7% and for Chris Cave becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Iom Elite Players 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Martin: 79%, Chris Cave: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Martin: 69%, Chris Cave: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Cave: 1,661, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for James Martin: 1,517, level confidence: 69%.