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Mason McLarney v David Freer (Mon 14 Jan 2019)

Match won by Mason McLarney. Result: 11-6,11-1,11-7.

Starting level for Mason McLarney: 2,433, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Freer: 1,323, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Mason McLarney to win as he is currently playing 84% better than David Freer.

Mason McLarney won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mason McLarney played 136% better than David Freer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mason McLarney actually played at a level of 2,755 and David Freer at a level of 1,169. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.6% and 9.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mason McLarney changes to +9.3% and David Freer changes to -9.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mason McLarney becomes +4.4% and for David Freer becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mason McLarney is +3.3% and for David Freer is -4.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mason McLarney: 86%, David Freer: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mason McLarney: 76%, David Freer: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mason McLarney: 2,509, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for David Freer: 1,269, level confidence: 75%.