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Peter Richardson v Phil Gillett (Tue 15 Jan 2019)

Match won by Peter Richardson. Result: 15-9,15-9,15-9.

Starting level for Peter Richardson: 2,325, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Phil Gillett: 1,239, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Peter Richardson to win as he is currently playing 88% better than Phil Gillett.

Peter Richardson won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Richardson played 67% better than Phil Gillett in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Richardson was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,819 and 2,325 without affecting his level.

In this case, Peter Richardson played at level 2,075 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Peter Richardson would normally have been playing at level 2,085 (based on typical behaviour), Phil Gillett played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Richardson changes to 0% and Phil Gillett changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Richardson becomes 0% and for Phil Gillett becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Richardson is 0% and for Phil Gillett is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Richardson: 77%, Phil Gillett: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Richardson: 73%, Phil Gillett: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Richardson: 2,322, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Phil Gillett: 1,240, level confidence: 81%.