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Jeremy Shayler v Paul Nieduszynski (Tue 15 Jan 2019)

Match won by Jeremy Shayler. Result: 11-4,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Jeremy Shayler: 2,310, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,219, level confidence: 53%.
Jeremy Shayler to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Paul Nieduszynski.

Jeremy Shayler won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeremy Shayler played 106% better than Paul Nieduszynski in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jeremy Shayler actually played at a level of 3,251 and Paul Nieduszynski at a level of 1,576. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 41% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeremy Shayler changes to +34% and Paul Nieduszynski changes to -40%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeremy Shayler becomes +12.6% and for Paul Nieduszynski becomes -15%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2019' so the adjustment for Jeremy Shayler is +9.4% and for Paul Nieduszynski is -10.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Nieduszynski is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeremy Shayler: 79%, Paul Nieduszynski: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeremy Shayler: 56%, Paul Nieduszynski: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jeremy Shayler: 2,524, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,110, level confidence: 52%.