David O'Neill v Allister Crossley (Wed 16 Jan 2019)
Match won by Allister Crossley. Result: 15-14,12-15,10-15,11-15.
Starting level for
David O'Neill:
1,752, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Allister Crossley:
1,685, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
David O'Neill to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Allister Crossley.
Allister Crossley won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Allister Crossley played
24% better than David O'Neill in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Allister Crossley actually played at a level of
1,916 and David O'Neill at a level of
1,541. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Allister Crossley changes to +13% and David O'Neill changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Allister Crossley becomes +6.5% and for David O'Neill becomes -5.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Allister Crossley is +2.6% and for David O'Neill is -2.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Allister Crossley: 87%, David O'Neill: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Allister Crossley: 77%, David O'Neill: 81%.
Final level for David O'Neill:
1,713, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Allister Crossley:
1,729, level confidence: 77%.