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Steven Morley v Liam Davies (Thu 17 Jan 2019)

Match won by Steven Morley. Result: 14-15,15-12,15-8,15-13.

Starting level for Steven Morley: 1,782, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Liam Davies: 1,516, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Steven Morley to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Liam Davies.

Steven Morley won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Morley played 24% better than Liam Davies in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steven Morley actually played at a level of 1,833 and Liam Davies at a level of 1,474. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Morley changes to +2.6% and Liam Davies changes to -2.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Morley becomes +2.1% and for Liam Davies becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Steven Morley is +1.6% and for Liam Davies is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Morley: 80%, Liam Davies: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Morley: 78%, Liam Davies: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Morley: 1,807, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Liam Davies: 1,492, level confidence: 84%.