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Magnus Lamprecht v Patric Russell (Thu 17 Jan 2019)

Match won by Magnus Lamprecht. Result: 15-11,15-13,14-15,7-15,15-12.

Starting level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,273, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Patric Russell: 1,018, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Magnus Lamprecht to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Patric Russell.

Magnus Lamprecht won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Magnus Lamprecht played 8% better than Patric Russell in this match.

As Magnus Lamprecht has played below his allowed range at 1,159, his level reduction is 5.9% before damping. On the assumption that Magnus Lamprecht would normally have been playing at level 1,252 (based on typical behaviour), Patric Russell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.2% and 6.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht changes to -5.2% and Patric Russell changes to +4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht becomes -3.8% and for Patric Russell becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht is -2.8% and for Patric Russell is +2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Magnus Lamprecht: 73%, Patric Russell: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Magnus Lamprecht: 68%, Patric Russell: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,237, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Patric Russell: 1,046, level confidence: 78%.