Matthew Marshall v Phil Regan (Sat 19 Jan 2019)
Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 11-8,11-7,11-6.
Starting level for
Matthew Marshall:
9,542, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Phil Regan:
4,148, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing
130% better than Phil Regan.
Matthew Marshall won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played
56% better than Phil Regan in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Matthew Marshall was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,700 and 9,542 without affecting his level.
As Matthew Marshall has played below his allowed range at 6,593, his level reduction is 1.6% before damping. On the assumption that Matthew Marshall would normally have been playing at level 7,995 (based on typical behaviour), Phil Regan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 7.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to -1.1% and Phil Regan changes to +6.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes -0.5% and for Phil Regan becomes +2.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Intercounty 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 86%, Phil Regan: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 71%, Phil Regan: 75%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall:
9,491, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Phil Regan:
4,267, level confidence: 75%.