Matthew Marshall v Anthony Rogal (Sat 19 Jan 2019)
Match won by Anthony Rogal. Result: 11-9,11-3,12-14,2-11,8-11.
Starting level for
Matthew Marshall:
9,491, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Anthony Rogal:
11,964, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing
26% better than Matthew Marshall.
Anthony Rogal won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Rogal played
10% better than Matthew Marshall in this match.
As Anthony Rogal has played below his allowed range at 10,969, his level reduction is 5.3% before damping. On the assumption that Anthony Rogal would normally have been playing at level 11,754 (based on typical behaviour), Matthew Marshall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.2%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 5.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal changes to -4.2% and Matthew Marshall changes to +5.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal becomes -1.7% and for Matthew Marshall becomes +2.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Intercounty 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Rogal: 88%, Matthew Marshall: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Rogal: 82%, Matthew Marshall: 79%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall:
9,693, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Anthony Rogal:
11,758, level confidence: 82%.