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Rob Wilkinson v David Wallond (Sat 19 Jan 2019)

Match won by Rob Wilkinson. Result: 11-4,9-11,7-11,11-9,11-5.

Starting level for Rob Wilkinson: 3,456, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Wallond: 2,914, level confidence: 68%.
Rob Wilkinson to win as he is currently playing 19% better than David Wallond.

Rob Wilkinson won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Wilkinson played 13% better than David Wallond in this match.

As Rob Wilkinson has played below his allowed range at 3,342, his level reduction is 1.4% before damping. On the assumption that Rob Wilkinson would normally have been playing at level 3,426 (based on typical behaviour), David Wallond played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.9%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Wilkinson changes to -1.2% and David Wallond changes to +1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Wilkinson becomes -0.8% and for David Wallond becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for Rob Wilkinson is -0.6% and for David Wallond is +0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Wilkinson: 86%, David Wallond: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Wilkinson: 84%, David Wallond: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Wilkinson: 3,431, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for David Wallond: 2,936, level confidence: 80%.