SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Mike Hayler v Steve Baker (Mon 21 Jan 2019)

Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 2-11,11-10,11-10,4-11,4-11.

Starting level for Mike Hayler: 2,575, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Steve Baker: 2,443, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Mike Hayler to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Steve Baker.

Steve Baker won 60% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 66% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played 24% better than Mike Hayler in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Baker actually played at a level of 2,792 and Mike Hayler at a level of 2,253. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to +9.5% and Mike Hayler changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes +4.4% and for Mike Hayler becomes -5.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Steve Baker is +3.3% and for Mike Hayler is -4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 91%, Mike Hayler: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 80%, Mike Hayler: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Hayler: 2,464, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Steve Baker: 2,521, level confidence: 80%.