Ben Peach v Lyndon Cheetham (Mon 21 Jan 2019)
Match won by Lyndon Cheetham. Result: 11-5,7-11,9-11,11-9,7-11.
Starting level for
Ben Peach:
2,056, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Lyndon Cheetham:
2,044, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Ben Peach to win as he is currently playing
1% better than Lyndon Cheetham.
Lyndon Cheetham won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyndon Cheetham played
9% better than Ben Peach in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyndon Cheetham actually played at a level of
2,136 and Ben Peach at a level of
1,967. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham changes to +4.5% and Ben Peach changes to -3.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham becomes +2.9% and for Ben Peach becomes -2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham is +2.1% and for Ben Peach is -2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyndon Cheetham: 85%, Ben Peach: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyndon Cheetham: 81%, Ben Peach: 87%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ben Peach:
2,013, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Lyndon Cheetham:
2,085, level confidence: 81%.