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Joshua Green v Allister Crossley (Mon 21 Jan 2019)

Match won by Joshua Green. Result: 11-6,10-11,11-9,11-5.

Starting level for Joshua Green: 1,932, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Allister Crossley: 1,731, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Joshua Green to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Allister Crossley.

Joshua Green won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Green played 30% better than Allister Crossley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joshua Green actually played at a level of 2,081 and Allister Crossley at a level of 1,607. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Green changes to +7% and Allister Crossley changes to -7.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Green becomes +3.8% and for Allister Crossley becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Joshua Green is +2.9% and for Allister Crossley is -3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Green: 89%, Allister Crossley: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Green: 82%, Allister Crossley: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joshua Green: 1,985, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Allister Crossley: 1,694, level confidence: 80%.