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Shakil Mir v Shaun Mizen (Tue 15 Jan 2019)

Match won by Shaun Mizen. Result: 15-10,8-15,9-15,12-15.

Starting level for Shakil Mir: 1,243, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Shaun Mizen: 2,122, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Shaun Mizen to win as he is currently playing 71% better than Shakil Mir.

Shaun Mizen won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shaun Mizen played 25% better than Shakil Mir in this match.

As Shaun Mizen has played below his allowed range at 1,658, his level reduction is 6.7% before damping. On the assumption that Shaun Mizen would normally have been playing at level 1,957 (based on typical behaviour), Shakil Mir played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.1% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shaun Mizen changes to -3.6% and Shakil Mir changes to +9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shaun Mizen becomes -2.5% and for Shakil Mir becomes +5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Shaun Mizen is -1.9% and for Shakil Mir is +4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shaun Mizen: 84%, Shakil Mir: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shaun Mizen: 72%, Shakil Mir: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Shakil Mir: 1,293, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Shaun Mizen: 2,080, level confidence: 72%.