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Ramish Aziz v David Wallond (Tue 15 Jan 2019)

Match won by Ramish Aziz. Result: 16-14,15-10,15-12.

Starting level for Ramish Aziz: 2,366, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for David Wallond: 3,036, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Ramish Aziz.

Ramish Aziz won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ramish Aziz played 37% better than David Wallond in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ramish Aziz actually played at a level of 3,134 and David Wallond at a level of 2,292. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ramish Aziz changes to +28% and David Wallond changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ramish Aziz becomes +10.6% and for David Wallond becomes -6.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Ramish Aziz is +8% and for David Wallond is -4.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ramish Aziz: 71%, David Wallond: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ramish Aziz: 54%, David Wallond: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ramish Aziz: 2,551, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for David Wallond: 2,902, level confidence: 69%.