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Samantha Ward v Nick Hiley (Tue 22 Jan 2019)

Match won by Nick Hiley. Result: 7-11,8-11,11-7,11-4,10-12.

Starting level for Samantha Ward: 4,157, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Nick Hiley: 4,503, level confidence: 65%.
Nick Hiley to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Samantha Ward.

Nick Hiley won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Hiley played 6% better than Samantha Ward in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Hiley actually played at a level of 4,464 and Samantha Ward at a level of 4,194. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Hiley changes to -0.8% and Samantha Ward changes to +0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Hiley becomes -0.5% and for Samantha Ward becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Durham & Cleveland Mens Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nick Hiley is -0.4% and for Samantha Ward is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Hiley: 81%, Samantha Ward: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Hiley: 80%, Samantha Ward: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Samantha Ward: 4,167, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Nick Hiley: 4,479, level confidence: 80%.