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Shaun Mizen v Howard Regan (Tue 22 Jan 2019)

Match won by Shaun Mizen. Result: 15-7,13-15,15-5,10-15,15-9.

Starting level for Shaun Mizen: 2,084, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Howard Regan: 1,996, level confidence: 66%.
Shaun Mizen to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Howard Regan.

Shaun Mizen won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shaun Mizen played 16% better than Howard Regan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shaun Mizen actually played at a level of 2,195 and Howard Regan at a level of 1,895. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shaun Mizen changes to +5% and Howard Regan changes to -5.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shaun Mizen becomes +3% and for Howard Regan becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Shaun Mizen is +2.3% and for Howard Regan is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shaun Mizen: 83%, Howard Regan: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shaun Mizen: 79%, Howard Regan: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Shaun Mizen: 2,128, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Howard Regan: 1,947, level confidence: 77%.