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Paul Nieduszynski v Tony Kennedy (Tue 22 Jan 2019)

Match won by Tony Kennedy. Result: 9-11,11-6,11-8,11-13,5-11.

Starting level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,109, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Tony Kennedy: 3,128, level confidence: 64%.
Tony Kennedy to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Paul Nieduszynski.

Tony Kennedy won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tony Kennedy played 9% better than Paul Nieduszynski in this match.

As Tony Kennedy has played below his allowed range at 2,538, his level reduction is 10.9% before damping. On the assumption that Tony Kennedy would normally have been playing at level 2,984 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Nieduszynski played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.8% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tony Kennedy changes to -6.8% and Paul Nieduszynski changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tony Kennedy becomes -3.3% and for Paul Nieduszynski becomes +5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2019' so the adjustment for Tony Kennedy is -2.4% and for Paul Nieduszynski is +4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tony Kennedy: 80%, Paul Nieduszynski: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tony Kennedy: 69%, Paul Nieduszynski: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,191, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Tony Kennedy: 3,049, level confidence: 69%.