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Nick Wall v Chris Simpson (Wed 23 Jan 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 7-11,6-11,0-11.

Starting level for Nick Wall: 21,715, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 33,718, level confidence: 62%.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 55% better than Nick Wall.

Chris Simpson won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 154% better than Nick Wall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Simpson actually played at a level of 43,112 and Nick Wall at a level of 16,983. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to +22% and Nick Wall changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes +4.6% and for Nick Wall becomes -4.3%.

Given Chris Simpson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 60% has been applied to his level change.

Given Nick Wall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Simpson is +2.1% and for Nick Wall is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 79%, Nick Wall: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 62%, Nick Wall: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Wall: 21,295, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 34,528, level confidence: 62%.