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Liam Davies v Marc Taggart (Thu 24 Jan 2019)

Match won by Liam Davies. Result: 15-10,15-9,15-10.

Starting level for Liam Davies: 1,489, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marc Taggart: 1,081, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Liam Davies to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Marc Taggart.

Liam Davies won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Davies played 55% better than Marc Taggart in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Liam Davies actually played at a level of 1,580 and Marc Taggart at a level of 1,019. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.2% and 5.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Liam Davies changes to +4.6% and Marc Taggart changes to -5.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Liam Davies becomes +3.2% and for Marc Taggart becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Liam Davies is +2.4% and for Marc Taggart is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Davies: 90%, Marc Taggart: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Davies: 85%, Marc Taggart: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Liam Davies: 1,523, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Marc Taggart: 1,058, level confidence: 80%.