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David O'Neill v David Freer (Thu 24 Jan 2019)

Match won by David O'Neill. Result: 15-9,15-13,14-15,15-5.

Starting level for David O'Neill: 1,711, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Freer: 1,269, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
David O'Neill to win as he is currently playing 35% better than David Freer.

David O'Neill won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David O'Neill played 30% better than David Freer in this match.

In this case, David O'Neill played at level 1,657 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that David O'Neill would normally have been playing at level 1,662 (based on typical behaviour), David Freer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David O'Neill changes to 0% and David Freer changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David O'Neill becomes 0% and for David Freer becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for David O'Neill is 0% and for David Freer is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David O'Neill: 93%, David Freer: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David O'Neill: 91%, David Freer: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David O'Neill: 1,708, level confidence: 91%.
Final level for David Freer: 1,270, level confidence: 83%.