James Martin v Mark Stratford (Thu 24 Jan 2019)
Match won by James Martin. Result: 15-10,12-15,15-10,15-8.
Starting level for
James Martin:
1,510, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Mark Stratford:
1,373, level confidence: 58%.
James Martin to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Mark Stratford.
James Martin won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Martin played
27% better than Mark Stratford in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Martin actually played at a level of
1,626 and Mark Stratford at a level of
1,275. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Martin changes to +6.3% and Mark Stratford changes to -7.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Martin becomes +3.9% and for Mark Stratford becomes -4.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for James Martin is +2.9% and for Mark Stratford is -3.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Martin: 83%, Mark Stratford: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Martin: 77%, Mark Stratford: 71%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for James Martin:
1,552, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Mark Stratford:
1,326, level confidence: 71%.