Simon Amott v David Wallond (Sat 26 Jan 2019)
Match won by David Wallond. Result: 15-13,17-19,12-15,13-15.
Starting level for
Simon Amott:
2,683, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
David Wallond:
3,003, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Simon Amott.
David Wallond won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wallond played
20% better than Simon Amott in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Wallond actually played at a level of
3,105 and Simon Amott at a level of
2,595. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wallond changes to +2.5% and Simon Amott changes to -3.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wallond becomes +1.7% and for Simon Amott becomes -2.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for David Wallond is +1.3% and for Simon Amott is -1.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wallond: 90%, Simon Amott: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wallond: 87%, Simon Amott: 77%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Simon Amott:
2,636, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for David Wallond:
3,037, level confidence: 87%.