Cameron Pilley v Nathan Lake (Sat 19 Jan 2019)
Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 12-10,11-9,11-6.
Starting level for
Cameron Pilley:
34,868, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
31,908, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Cameron Pilley to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Nathan Lake.
Cameron Pilley won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played
42% better than Nathan Lake in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Pilley actually played at a level of
39,785 and Nathan Lake at a level of
27,964. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley changes to +13% and Nathan Lake changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley becomes +3.1% and for Nathan Lake becomes -3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 85%, Nathan Lake: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 74%, Nathan Lake: 75%.
A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Cameron Pilley:
35,837, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
31,304, level confidence: 75%.