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Zahed Mohamed v Eain Yow Ng (Sun 20 Jan 2019)

Match won by Zahed Mohamed. Result: 9-11,11-5,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 38,042, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 38,653, level confidence: 63%.
Eain Yow Ng to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Zahed Mohamed.

Zahed Mohamed won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zahed Mohamed played 28% better than Eain Yow Ng in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Zahed Mohamed actually played at a level of 43,462 and Eain Yow Ng at a level of 33,833. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed changes to +11% and Eain Yow Ng changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed becomes +2.7% and for Eain Yow Ng becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zahed Mohamed: 89%, Eain Yow Ng: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zahed Mohamed: 78%, Eain Yow Ng: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 38,968, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 37,585, level confidence: 69%.