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Cameron Pilley v Tom Richards (Sun 20 Jan 2019)

Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 11-3,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 35,920, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Richards: 38,284, level confidence: 57%.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Cameron Pilley.

Cameron Pilley won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played 120% better than Tom Richards in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Pilley actually played at a level of 55,003 and Tom Richards at a level of 25,001. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 53% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley changes to +39% and Tom Richards changes to -51%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley becomes +7.3% and for Tom Richards becomes -9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Cameron Pilley is limited to +5.4% and Tom Richards is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 86%, Tom Richards: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 56%, Tom Richards: 49%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cameron Pilley: 37,874, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Tom Richards: 36,851, level confidence: 49%.