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Diego Elias v Cameron Pilley (Mon 21 Jan 2019)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-9,11-8,5-11,11-7.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 52,330, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 37,726, level confidence: 56%.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Cameron Pilley.

Diego Elias won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 20% better than Cameron Pilley in this match.

As Diego Elias has played below his allowed range at 46,967, his level reduction is 4.1% before damping. On the assumption that Diego Elias would normally have been playing at level 50,585 (based on typical behaviour), Cameron Pilley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to -2.7% and Cameron Pilley changes to +5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes -1% and for Cameron Pilley becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 84%, Cameron Pilley: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 78%, Cameron Pilley: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 51,726, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Cameron Pilley: 38,390, level confidence: 69%.