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Rick Scannell v Richard Esau (Tue 29 Jan 2019)

Match won by Rick Scannell. Result: 3-1.

Starting level for Rick Scannell: 276, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Richard Esau: 243, level confidence: 31%.
Rick Scannell to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Richard Esau.

Rick Scannell won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rick Scannell actually played at a level of 290 and Richard Esau at a level of 232. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.9% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 3.7%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rick Scannell changes to +1.7% and Richard Esau changes to -3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rick Scannell becomes +1.7% and for Richard Esau becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Rick Scannell is +0.9% and for Richard Esau is -1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rick Scannell: 81%, Richard Esau: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rick Scannell: 77%, Richard Esau: 53%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rick Scannell: 279, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Richard Esau: 239, level confidence: 53%.