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Peter Richardson v Adam Smith (Tue 29 Jan 2019)

Match won by Peter Richardson. Result: 15-10,15-9,15-12.

Starting level for Peter Richardson: 2,198, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Adam Smith: 2,152, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Peter Richardson to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Adam Smith.

Peter Richardson won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Richardson played 48% better than Adam Smith in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Richardson actually played at a level of 2,649 and Adam Smith at a level of 1,785. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Richardson changes to +20% and Adam Smith changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Richardson becomes +8.3% and for Adam Smith becomes -7.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Richardson is +6.2% and for Adam Smith is -5.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Richardson: 80%, Adam Smith: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Richardson: 66%, Adam Smith: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Richardson: 2,332, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Adam Smith: 2,046, level confidence: 72%.