SquashLevels calculations
Ray Owens v Nick Dear (Wed 30 Jan 2019)
Match won by Ray Owens. Result: 3-0.
Starting level for
Ray Owens:
250, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nick Dear:
130, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Ray Owens to win as he is currently playing
92% better than Nick Dear.
Ray Owens won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ray Owens was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 186 and 250 without affecting his level.
In this case, Ray Owens played at level 228 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Nick Dear is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
As this result doesn't have points scores, the difference in levels is significant and the match was a straight games win, leave the levels unchanged. Provide points scores if you can!
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ray Owens: 91%, Nick Dear: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ray Owens: 87%, Nick Dear: 86%.
Final level for Ray Owens:
250, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Nick Dear:
130, level confidence: 86%.