Ray Owens v James Freeman (Wed 30 Jan 2019)
Match won by Ray Owens. Result: 3-0.
Starting level for
Ray Owens:
250, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for
James Freeman:
168, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Ray Owens to win as he is currently playing
49% better than James Freeman.
Ray Owens won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ray Owens actually played at a level of
271 and James Freeman at a level of
155. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.4% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.9% and 6.9% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 3.9%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ray Owens changes to +3.9% and James Freeman changes to -3.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ray Owens becomes +3.4% and for James Freeman becomes -3.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Ray Owens is +1.7% and for James Freeman is -1.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ray Owens: 93%, James Freeman: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ray Owens: 86%, James Freeman: 86%.
Final level for Ray Owens:
254, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for James Freeman:
165, level confidence: 86%.