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Jason Varrie v Matthew Marshall (Wed 30 Jan 2019)

Match won by Jason Varrie. Result: 12-10,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Jason Varrie: 8,188, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 9,561, level confidence: 68%.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Jason Varrie.

Jason Varrie won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jason Varrie played 55% better than Matthew Marshall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jason Varrie actually played at a level of 11,005 and Matthew Marshall at a level of 7,114. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jason Varrie changes to +26% and Matthew Marshall changes to -31%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jason Varrie becomes +7% and for Matthew Marshall becomes -8%.

Given Jason Varrie's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Buckinghamshire League' so the adjustment for Jason Varrie is +4.7% and for Matthew Marshall is -5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jason Varrie: 91%, Matthew Marshall: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jason Varrie: 67%, Matthew Marshall: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jason Varrie: 8,562, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall: 9,092, level confidence: 61%.