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Matthew Marshall v Steve Rogers (Tue 29 Jan 2019)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 11-3,11-2,3-11,11-8.

Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 9,692, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steve Rogers: 4,486, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 116% better than Steve Rogers.

Matthew Marshall won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 33% better than Steve Rogers in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Matthew Marshall was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,821 and 9,692 without affecting his level.

As Matthew Marshall has played below his allowed range at 6,385, his level reduction is 6.8% before damping. On the assumption that Matthew Marshall would normally have been playing at level 8,291 (based on typical behaviour), Steve Rogers played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to -4.6% and Steve Rogers changes to +10.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes -1.9% and for Steve Rogers becomes +4.1%.

Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2019' so the adjustment for Matthew Marshall is -1.2% and for Steve Rogers is +3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 87%, Steve Rogers: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 68%, Steve Rogers: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Marshall: 9,560, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Steve Rogers: 4,615, level confidence: 71%.