David Freer v Jon Shepherd (Thu 31 Jan 2019)
Match won by David Freer. Result: 11-15,15-10,15-6,15-8.
Starting level for
David Freer:
1,265, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Jon Shepherd:
1,544, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Jon Shepherd to win as he is currently playing
22% better than David Freer.
David Freer won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Freer played
31% better than Jon Shepherd in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Freer actually played at a level of
1,600 and Jon Shepherd at a level of
1,220. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Freer changes to +20% and Jon Shepherd changes to -24%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Freer becomes +9.9% and for Jon Shepherd becomes -10.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for David Freer is +7.4% and for Jon Shepherd is -7.9%.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jon Shepherd is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Freer: 93%, Jon Shepherd: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Freer: 74%, Jon Shepherd: 67%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for David Freer:
1,357, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Jon Shepherd:
1,468, level confidence: 67%.