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Simon Hughes v David Wallond (Wed 30 Jan 2019)

Match won by Simon Hughes. Result: 15-8,15-6,15-7.

Starting level for Simon Hughes: 5,167, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for David Wallond: 3,032, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Simon Hughes to win as he is currently playing 70% better than David Wallond.

Simon Hughes won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Hughes played 114% better than David Wallond in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Hughes actually played at a level of 5,794 and David Wallond at a level of 2,704. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.2% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Hughes changes to +9.2% and David Wallond changes to -7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Hughes becomes +3.5% and for David Wallond becomes -3.4%.

Given Simon Hughes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.7% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vintage Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for Simon Hughes is +2.6% and for David Wallond is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Hughes: 82%, David Wallond: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Hughes: 73%, David Wallond: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Hughes: 5,293, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for David Wallond: 2,967, level confidence: 83%.