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Malcolm North v John Hughes (Thu 31 Jan 2019)

Match won by John Hughes. Result: 8-15,5-15,8-15.

Starting level for Malcolm North: 1,302, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for John Hughes: 1,984, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
John Hughes to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Malcolm North.

John Hughes won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Hughes played 114% better than Malcolm North in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Hughes actually played at a level of 2,353 and Malcolm North at a level of 1,098. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Hughes changes to +9.9% and Malcolm North changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Hughes becomes +4.9% and for Malcolm North becomes -7.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for John Hughes is +3.7% and for Malcolm North is -5.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Hughes: 88%, Malcolm North: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Hughes: 75%, Malcolm North: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Malcolm North: 1,229, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for John Hughes: 2,054, level confidence: 75%.