Nick Doyle v David Wallond (Thu 31 Jan 2019)
Match won by David Wallond. Result: 12-15,18-16,19-17,4-15,7-15.
Starting level for
Nick Doyle:
2,276, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
David Wallond:
2,981, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Nick Doyle.
David Wallond won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wallond played
15% better than Nick Doyle in this match.
As David Wallond has played below his allowed range at 2,719, his level reduction is 3.9% before damping. On the assumption that David Wallond would normally have been playing at level 2,911 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Doyle played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.5%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.4% and 4.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wallond changes to -3.2% and Nick Doyle changes to +4.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wallond becomes -2.1% and for Nick Doyle becomes +2.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for David Wallond is -1.6% and for Nick Doyle is +2.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wallond: 91%, Nick Doyle: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wallond: 85%, Nick Doyle: 82%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nick Doyle:
2,321, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for David Wallond:
2,930, level confidence: 85%.