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Nathan Quilliam v James Martin (Thu 31 Jan 2019)

Match won by Nathan Quilliam. Result: 15-11,15-10,15-8.

Starting level for Nathan Quilliam: 1,910, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Martin: 1,554, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Nathan Quilliam to win as he is currently playing 23% better than James Martin.

Nathan Quilliam won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Quilliam played 55% better than James Martin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Quilliam actually played at a level of 2,146 and James Martin at a level of 1,383. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam changes to +11.1% and James Martin changes to -10.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam becomes +5.4% and for James Martin becomes -5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam is +4% and for James Martin is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Quilliam: 85%, James Martin: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Quilliam: 75%, James Martin: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nathan Quilliam: 1,984, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for James Martin: 1,489, level confidence: 77%.