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Liam Davies v Mark Grace (Thu 31 Jan 2019)

Match won by Liam Davies. Result: 15-5,15-3,15-4.

Starting level for Liam Davies: 1,636, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Grace: 1,388, level confidence: 68%.
Liam Davies to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Mark Grace.

Liam Davies won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 275% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Davies played 275% better than Mark Grace in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Liam Davies actually played at a level of 2,918 and Mark Grace at a level of 778. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 78% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Liam Davies changes to +66% and Mark Grace changes to -70%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Liam Davies becomes +24.6% and for Mark Grace becomes -28%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Liam Davies is +18% and for Mark Grace is -20%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Liam Davies is limited to +10% and Mark Grace is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Davies: 86%, Mark Grace: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Davies: 48%, Mark Grace: 46%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Liam Davies: 1,797, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Mark Grace: 1,320, level confidence: 46%.