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Peter Ginty v Shaun Callow (Thu 31 Jan 2019)

Match won by Shaun Callow. Result: 14-15,10-15,15-11,15-14,12-15.

Starting level for Peter Ginty: 1,186, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Shaun Callow: 1,140, level confidence: 24%.
Peter Ginty to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Shaun Callow.

Shaun Callow won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shaun Callow played 9% better than Peter Ginty in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shaun Callow actually played at a level of 1,214 and Peter Ginty at a level of 1,114. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shaun Callow changes to +6.4% and Peter Ginty changes to -2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shaun Callow becomes +4.4% and for Peter Ginty becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Shaun Callow is +3.3% and for Peter Ginty is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shaun Callow: 49%, Peter Ginty: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shaun Callow: 46%, Peter Ginty: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Ginty: 1,167, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Shaun Callow: 1,176, level confidence: 46%.