Chris Cave v Lyndon Cheetham (Mon 28 Jan 2019)
Match won by Lyndon Cheetham. Result: 11-8,11-10,3-11,8-11,9-11.
Starting level for
Chris Cave:
1,684, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Lyndon Cheetham:
2,084, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Lyndon Cheetham to win as he is currently playing
24% better than Chris Cave.
Lyndon Cheetham won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyndon Cheetham played
13% better than Chris Cave in this match.
As Lyndon Cheetham has played below his allowed range at 1,957, his level reduction is 3% before damping. On the assumption that Lyndon Cheetham would normally have been playing at level 2,053 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Cave played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 3.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham changes to -2.7% and Chris Cave changes to +3.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham becomes -2% and for Chris Cave becomes +2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham is -1.5% and for Chris Cave is +2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyndon Cheetham: 89%, Chris Cave: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyndon Cheetham: 85%, Chris Cave: 86%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Chris Cave:
1,715, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Lyndon Cheetham:
2,050, level confidence: 85%.