Robin Crease v Jason Blue (Mon 28 Jan 2019)
Match won by Jason Blue. Result: 7-11,8-11,5-11.
Starting level for
Robin Crease:
3,225, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Jason Blue:
4,306, level confidence: 67%.
Jason Blue to win as he is currently playing
34% better than Robin Crease.
Jason Blue won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jason Blue played
65% better than Robin Crease in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jason Blue actually played at a level of
4,787 and Robin Crease at a level of
2,901. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.6% and 9.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jason Blue changes to +9.6% and Robin Crease changes to -7.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jason Blue becomes +3.8% and for Robin Crease becomes -3.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Jason Blue is +2.8% and for Robin Crease is -2.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jason Blue: 82%, Robin Crease: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jason Blue: 74%, Robin Crease: 84%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Robin Crease:
3,141, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Jason Blue:
4,421, level confidence: 74%.