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Chris Lucas v Rob Ready (Sat 02 Feb 2019)

Match won by Chris Lucas. Result: 15-11,15-12,15-11.

Starting level for Chris Lucas: 730, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Rob Ready: 742, level confidence: 48%.
Rob Ready to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Chris Lucas.

Chris Lucas won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Lucas played 40% better than Rob Ready in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Lucas actually played at a level of 870 and Rob Ready at a level of 622. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Lucas changes to +13% and Rob Ready changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Lucas becomes +8.1% and for Rob Ready becomes -10.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Lucas is +6% and for Rob Ready is -7.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Lucas: 83%, Rob Ready: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Lucas: 70%, Rob Ready: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Lucas: 773, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Rob Ready: 687, level confidence: 58%.