Iker Pajares Bernabeu v Chris Simpson (Tue 29 Jan 2019)
Match won by Iker Pajares Bernabeu. Result: 8-11,11-9,7-11,11-7,11-9.
Starting level for
Iker Pajares Bernabeu:
34,529, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Chris Simpson:
34,328, level confidence: 60%.
Iker Pajares Bernabeu to win as he is currently playing
1% better than Chris Simpson.
Iker Pajares Bernabeu won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Iker Pajares Bernabeu played
8% better than Chris Simpson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Iker Pajares Bernabeu actually played at a level of
35,784 and Chris Simpson at a level of
33,124. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to +3.5% and Chris Simpson changes to -3.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes +1.3% and for Chris Simpson becomes -1.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 79%, Chris Simpson: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 76%, Chris Simpson: 75%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu:
34,990, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Chris Simpson:
33,971, level confidence: 75%.