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Cesar Salazar v Peter Creed (Tue 29 Jan 2019)

Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 11-7,7-11,10-12,11-8,11-2.

Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 39,344, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 26,750, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Peter Creed.

Cesar Salazar won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played 14% better than Peter Creed in this match.

As Cesar Salazar has played below his allowed range at 33,067, his level reduction is 8.7% before damping. On the assumption that Cesar Salazar would normally have been playing at level 37,600 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Creed played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.1% and 9.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to -7.1% and Peter Creed changes to +7.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes -1.9% and for Peter Creed becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 83%, Peter Creed: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 73%, Peter Creed: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cesar Salazar: 38,591, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 27,375, level confidence: 81%.