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Omar Mosaad v Chris Hanson (Wed 30 Jan 2019)

Match won by Omar Mosaad. Result: 11-4,7-11,13-11,8-11,11-9.

Starting level for Omar Mosaad: 39,015, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Hanson: 32,273, level confidence: 58%.
Omar Mosaad to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Chris Hanson.

Omar Mosaad won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Omar Mosaad played 10% better than Chris Hanson in this match.

As Omar Mosaad has played below his allowed range at 36,739, his level reduction is 3.8% before damping. On the assumption that Omar Mosaad would normally have been playing at level 38,572 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Hanson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.4%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Omar Mosaad changes to -2.6% and Chris Hanson changes to +4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Omar Mosaad becomes -1% and for Chris Hanson becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Omar Mosaad: 87%, Chris Hanson: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Omar Mosaad: 83%, Chris Hanson: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Omar Mosaad: 38,627, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Chris Hanson: 32,802, level confidence: 72%.