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Paul Barnett v Hamish Thornton (Mon 04 Feb 2019)

Match won by Hamish Thornton. Result: 8-11,8-11,11-6,9-11.

Starting level for Paul Barnett: 3,497, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Hamish Thornton: 3,434, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Paul Barnett to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Hamish Thornton.

Hamish Thornton won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hamish Thornton played 20% better than Paul Barnett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hamish Thornton actually played at a level of 3,788 and Paul Barnett at a level of 3,170. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hamish Thornton changes to +10.2% and Paul Barnett changes to -8.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hamish Thornton becomes +4.2% and for Paul Barnett becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Hamish Thornton is +3.2% and for Paul Barnett is -2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hamish Thornton: 84%, Paul Barnett: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hamish Thornton: 76%, Paul Barnett: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Barnett: 3,398, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Hamish Thornton: 3,537, level confidence: 76%.