Mike Hayler v Robin Crease (Mon 04 Feb 2019)
Match won by Robin Crease. Result: 10-11,4-11,6-11.
Starting level for
Mike Hayler:
2,348, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Robin Crease:
3,144, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Robin Crease to win as he is currently playing
34% better than Mike Hayler.
Robin Crease won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robin Crease played
65% better than Mike Hayler in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robin Crease actually played at a level of
3,490 and Mike Hayler at a level of
2,115. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.4% and 9.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robin Crease changes to +7.5% and Mike Hayler changes to -9.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robin Crease becomes +3.5% and for Mike Hayler becomes -4.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Robin Crease is +2.6% and for Mike Hayler is -3.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robin Crease: 90%, Mike Hayler: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robin Crease: 81%, Mike Hayler: 72%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mike Hayler:
2,269, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Robin Crease:
3,221, level confidence: 81%.